Monday, October 18, 2010

How The Financial World Will End (Maybe)

I was just reading a bunch of very interesting posts over at Gonza Lolira's blog including one about How Hyperinflation Will Happen. I don't know that I buy any of his specific guesses for what the trigger event(s) will be but I do agree with this basic premise:
  • U.S. Treasuries are a bubble market
  • When the bubble pops there will be a rush to something/anything more tangible, e.g. commodities
  • This will trigger a new bubble in commodities
I also agree with the first part of his prediction:
  • This new bubble will trigger inflation in energy and production prices
  • Energy costs will trigger inflation in food and manufacturing
The questionable part, however, is that Mr Lolira thinks that the new bubble will be so massive as to constitute hyper-inflation, i.e., where price increases feed on themselves. Curiously, he also says that this inflation will not affect things like houses which instead will continue to decline in price. I think this is based on historical precedent?